Bitcoin had surrendered more than half its value in six months
En un mundo donde el dinero barato fue el aire que respiraron los activos especulativos, Bitcoin cayó por debajo de los $30,000 el martes, borrando las ganancias de 2022 y acumulando una pérdida del 57% desde su máximo histórico de noviembre. La caída no es solo un número: refleja el fin de una era de tasas cercanas a cero, presionada por la guerra en Ucrania, los confinamientos en China y la determinación de la Reserva Federal de enfriar una economía recalentada. Lo que alguna vez fue visto como un refugio alternativo al sistema financiero tradicional, hoy se mueve al compás de las mismas fuerzas que siempre prometió trascender.
- Bitcoin tocó $29,764, su nivel más bajo desde julio de 2021, arrastrando consigo a más de 13,000 criptomonedas y reduciendo el mercado total a la mitad, de $3 billones a $1.5 billones.
- La correlación de Bitcoin con el Nasdaq alcanzó su punto más alto registrado, revelando que la criptomoneda ya no escapa a la lógica del mercado tecnológico, sino que la amplifica.
- La Reserva Federal, la guerra en Ucrania y los confinamientos chinos forman una tormenta perfecta de aversión al riesgo que empuja a los inversores hacia activos más seguros y lejos de lo especulativo.
- El Salvador, bajo el liderazgo de Nayib Bukele, aprovechó la caída para comprar 500 bitcoins adicionales, una apuesta contracorriente que choca con el pánico generalizado del mercado.
- Analistas advierten que mientras la Fed siga subiendo tasas y los rendimientos de los bonos continúen escalando, los vientos en contra estructurales hacen improbable una recuperación sostenida a corto plazo.
El martes, Bitcoin perforó el umbral de los $30,000 por primera vez desde julio del año anterior, cayendo hasta $29,764 y borrando de un golpe las ganancias acumuladas durante meses. Desde su máximo histórico de $69,000 en noviembre de 2021, la criptomoneda había perdido más del 57% de su valor, dejando a la mayoría de los inversores recientes en terreno negativo.
El derrumbe no fue exclusivo de Bitcoin. Todo el ecosistema cripto, que había llegado a valer $3 billones, se contrajo a la mitad. Más de 13,000 criptomonedas registraron pérdidas en un contexto de huida generalizada del riesgo. La guerra en Ucrania, los confinamientos en China y el giro restrictivo de la Reserva Federal pesaron sobre los mercados. La firma de análisis Kaiko señaló que la correlación de Bitcoin con el Nasdaq había alcanzado su nivel más alto en la historia, subrayando cuánto se había integrado la criptomoneda a la lógica del mercado tecnológico convencional.
El momento fue especialmente duro para quienes habían ingresado al mercado en los últimos meses. A diferencia de la caída temporal de mediados de 2021, esta vez el contexto estructural había cambiado: la Fed abandonaba su política de dinero barato para combatir la inflación, los rendimientos de los bonos subían y el dólar se fortalecía, reduciendo el atractivo de los activos especulativos.
En medio del pesimismo, el presidente de El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, tomó una dirección opuesta y anunció la compra de 500 bitcoins adicionales para las reservas del país, aprovechando los precios bajos. Su gesto de convicción contrastó con el pánico dominante. Sin embargo, analistas como Fawad Razaqzada de City Index advirtieron que, mientras la Fed mantenga su curso de alzas de tasas, los riesgos de caídas adicionales siguen siendo reales y significativos.
Bitcoin dropped below $30,000 on Tuesday, a threshold that had not been breached since July of the previous year. The price fell to $29,764, erasing the gains the cryptocurrency had accumulated over the preceding months and marking a stark reversal from the euphoria of late 2021. From its peak of $69,000 in November, bitcoin had surrendered more than half its value—a 57 percent decline that left most investors who had bought in during the recent rally sitting underwater.
The collapse was not isolated to bitcoin. The entire cryptocurrency market, which had swelled to $3 trillion at its height, had contracted to roughly $1.5 trillion. More than 13,000 cryptocurrencies tracked by Coingecko were caught in the downdraft. The retreat reflected a broader shift in investor psychology: a wholesale flight from risk. The war in Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, and the Federal Reserve's pivot toward tighter monetary policy had spooked markets. Technology stocks, which had thrived under the loose money conditions of the pandemic, were suffering alongside crypto. Analysts at Kaiko, a blockchain research firm, noted that bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq—the index of American tech companies—had reached its highest point ever.
The timing was brutal for those who had entered the market in recent months. Bitcoin had briefly dipped below $30,000 in June and July of 2021 before recovering sharply and climbing to its historic high. This time, the descent felt different. The structural backdrop had shifted. The Federal Reserve, which had kept interest rates near zero to support the economy during the pandemic, was now signaling further rate increases to combat inflation. As bond yields rose and the dollar strengthened, the appeal of speculative assets dimmed.
Yet not everyone was retreating. El Salvador's president, Nayib Bukele, announced that his government had used the weakness to add 500 bitcoin to its holdings. El Salvador had made bitcoin legal tender in 2021, a bold move that drew sharp criticism from international financial institutions. The Central African Republic had followed suit. On Tuesday morning, as the price ticked up 2.3 percent, Bukele celebrated the move—a show of conviction that contrasted sharply with the panic elsewhere.
Bitcoin had been born and had matured in an era of extraordinarily cheap money. Since its creation in 2009, it had developed against a backdrop of near-zero interest rates. That world was ending. Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index, warned that while temporary rallies were possible, the fundamental headwinds were severe. As long as the Fed continued raising rates and bond yields climbed, he said, the cryptocurrency faced the prospect of even steeper declines. The question now was whether bitcoin could find a floor, or whether the unraveling would continue.
Citas Notables
Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq is at its maximum— Kaiko blockchain analysts
While temporary rallies are possible, further declines remain the principal risk as long as bond yields and the dollar keep rising— Fawad Razaqzada, City Index analyst
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why did bitcoin fall so sharply in May specifically? Was there a single trigger?
There wasn't one event. It was a convergence—Ukraine, China's lockdowns, and the Fed signaling it would raise rates. Investors started asking themselves why they were holding a volatile, yield-less asset when bonds were suddenly paying real returns again.
So this wasn't a crypto problem. It was a broader market problem.
Exactly. Bitcoin's correlation with tech stocks hit an all-time high. It had become just another risk asset, not the uncorrelated hedge people thought it was.
What about El Salvador? They kept buying. Does that suggest something?
It shows conviction, or stubbornness, depending on your view. Bukele was betting the panic would pass. But he was also one of the few actors with the luxury of a long time horizon and no pressure from investors demanding redemptions.
Is there a floor? Will it keep falling?
No one knows. The analyst quoted in the story said the main risk is further declines, not recovery. As long as the Fed keeps tightening and bond yields stay elevated, there's no obvious reason for bitcoin to stabilize.
What's the human cost here?
Most people who bought in the last few months are in losses. Some are probably panicking. Others, like Bukele, are doubling down. The volatility is the feature that attracts some and terrifies others.