Silent voters and a shift in public mood could favor the opposition
On the morning of May 4, 2026, Assam began the ritual of translating collective will into governance, as officials across 35 districts unsealed the machines holding the choices of millions. Exit polls, speaking with unusual unanimity, pointed toward a third consecutive mandate for the BJP-led alliance — a consolidation of power that would mark a decade of political dominance in a state long contested along lines of identity and belonging. Yet democracy reserves its final word for the count itself, and the opposition held to the belief that what people whisper in the privacy of the booth does not always match what they tell a pollster.
- Seven polling agencies aligned in rare consensus, projecting the BJP-led NDA anywhere from 68 to 101 seats — a range that still leaves the direction of power beyond serious doubt.
- High-security counting centers in 35 districts became the morning's focal points, with party agents filing in under heavy guard as the unsealing of EVMs began at 8 a.m.
- Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's campaign-trail remarks targeting 'Miyas' cast a shadow over the count, with the opposition alleging deliberate polarization and voter roll manipulation.
- Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi staked his party's hopes on 'silent voters' — those whose true preferences, he argued, the exit polls had systematically failed to capture.
- The BJP's state president claimed 80-plus wins from 90 contested seats, while Union ministers in Delhi framed Assam as one piece of a larger NDA electoral sweep.
- By mid-morning, the state hung in the balance between a historic hat-trick for the ruling alliance and the slim but unextinguished possibility of an opposition upset.
Assam woke on May 4, 2026, to the unsealing of machines. Across 40 counting centers in 35 districts, officials prepared to tally the votes of 722 candidates competing for 126 assembly seats. Security was tight — especially at Jorhat, where some of the most closely watched races would be decided. By 8 a.m., party agents had taken their positions.
The exit polls had already drawn a clear picture. Seven agencies, from Axis My India to Poll Diary, projected the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance winning between 68 and 101 seats, against 15 to 39 for the Congress-led opposition. If those numbers held, the BJP would claim a historic third consecutive victory in Assam — a hat-trick cementing its grip on a state central to its national strategy. BJP state president Dilip Saikia predicted his party alone would win more than 80 of its 90 contested seats. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, addressing candidates virtually, projected confidence in an overwhelming mandate. Union ministers in Delhi echoed the sentiment, framing Assam as part of a broader NDA sweep.
The opposition refused to concede the narrative. Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi invoked the theory of 'silent voters' — people who keep their true preferences from pollsters — and insisted the public mood had shifted in ways the surveys had missed. His party had spent the eve of counting on internal strategy rather than public rallies, quietly betting that the machines would tell a different story.
Hanging over the count was a controversy that had trailed the campaign: Sarma's remarks about 'Miyas' and polarization, which the opposition characterized as voter suppression, and allegations that the electoral roll revision had been used to disenfranchise certain communities. Those tensions had not dissolved when the polling stations closed.
By morning, the machinery of democracy was in motion. Within hours, one side would be vindicated. The other would have to reckon with what the count revealed — and with what it meant for Assam's contested political future.
Assam woke on May 4, 2026, to the sound of machinery being unsealed. Across 40 counting centers scattered through 35 districts, election officials prepared to open electronic voting machines that would determine the fate of 722 candidates competing for 126 assembly seats. The morning was tense. Security had been tightened visibly at each location—the Jorhat counting center, where some of the state's most closely watched races would be tallied, was under particularly heavy guard. By 8 a.m., party agents began arriving at their assigned stations, ready to watch the count unfold.
The exit polls had already spoken, and they spoke with remarkable consistency. Seven different polling agencies, from Axis My India to Poll Diary, projected the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would win somewhere between 68 and 101 seats. The Congress-led opposition alliance, by contrast, was forecast to capture between 15 and 39. The range was wide enough to leave room for surprise, but the direction was unmistakable. If these projections held, the BJP would secure a historic third consecutive victory in Assam—a hat-trick that would cement the party's dominance in a state that has become central to its national political strategy.
The ruling coalition had contested all 126 seats through three partners: the BJP itself, the Asom Gana Parishad, and the Bodoland People's Front. BJP state president Dilip Saikia had claimed the day before that his party alone expected to win more than 80 of the 90 seats it had fielded, suggesting the alliance could approach the 100-seat threshold. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, speaking through a virtual review with party candidates and leaders, projected confidence that voters had given the BJP an overwhelming mandate and that he would return to office. Union ministers Piyush Goyal and Arjun Ram Meghwal had echoed the sentiment from Delhi, framing the expected Assam result as part of a broader NDA sweep across multiple states holding elections simultaneously.
The opposition, led in Assam by Gaurav Gogoi, rejected the exit poll forecasts entirely. Gogoi argued that "silent voters"—those who do not reveal their preferences to pollsters—and a genuine shift in public mood favored the Congress alliance. The party had kept its campaign low-key on the eve of counting, focusing on internal strategy rather than public rallies, but its leadership maintained that the real story would emerge only when ballots were actually counted. The Congress camp was betting on a disconnect between what exit polls measured and what voters had actually done in the privacy of the booth.
Underlying the election itself was a controversy that had shadowed the campaign. Chief Minister Sarma had made remarks targeting "Miyas"—a term sometimes used to refer to Muslim voters—and had spoken about "polarization" in ways the opposition said amounted to voter suppression. The Congress accused the BJP of using the electoral roll revision process to disenfranchise certain groups. These tensions had not disappeared with the closing of polling stations; they hung over the counting centers as agents took their positions.
By morning, the machinery of democracy was in motion. The votes cast over the preceding weeks were about to be translated into seats, into power, into the next government of Assam. The exit polls suggested the outcome was largely predetermined. But Gogoi and his party were betting that the actual count would tell a different story—that somewhere in those electronic machines lay evidence of a public mood the pollsters had missed. Within hours, one side would be vindicated and the other would have to reckon with defeat. The state waited.
Citas Notables
The counting of votes is going to start very soon now. You can feel it throughout Assam that people have voted overwhelmingly for the BJP and BJP-led NDA.— Pradyut Bordoloi, BJP candidate from Dispur
Silent voters and an underlying shift in public mood could favour the Opposition when votes are counted.— Gaurav Gogoi, Assam Congress leader
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does a third consecutive win matter so much for the BJP in Assam?
It's about establishing dominance in a state that sits at the gateway to India's northeast. Three wins in a row isn't just electoral success—it's a signal that the party has built something durable, that it's not a flash in the pan. For a national party, that kind of consecutive victory in a major state becomes part of the narrative about where power is flowing in the country.
The exit polls show a huge range—68 to 101 seats for the NDA. That's a 33-seat spread. How much should we trust that?
The consistency across seven different agencies is actually what matters more than the range itself. They all point the same direction, even if they disagree on the magnitude. But yes, that spread is large enough that an opposition comeback, while unlikely according to the polls, isn't mathematically impossible.
Gaurav Gogoi keeps talking about "silent voters." Is that a real thing or just what you say when the polls are against you?
Silent voters are real—people who genuinely don't reveal their preferences to pollsters. But whether they exist in numbers large enough to swing 126 seats is the question. Gogoi is essentially saying the public mood has shifted in ways the exit polls haven't captured. It's a credible argument, but it requires the actual count to prove it.
What's the significance of the Himanta Biswa Sarma controversy over "Miyas" and polarization?
It suggests the campaign wasn't just about governance or development. There were explicit appeals to religious and communal identity, and the opposition is arguing those appeals crossed into voter suppression—that certain groups were being systematically removed from electoral rolls. That's not just a campaign tactic; it's a question about who gets to vote.
If the BJP wins as expected, what happens next?
Sarma returns as chief minister, the alliance governs for another five years, and the BJP can claim momentum heading into future national elections. If Congress somehow wins, it would be a shock that reverberates beyond Assam—it would suggest the exit polls are fundamentally broken and that anti-incumbency is stronger than anyone thought.