the Liberal party can't govern without One Nation
In the coastal seat of Nepean, a byelection victory for Victoria's Liberal party carried within it a quieter reckoning: the primary vote had eroded, and a resurgent One Nation had claimed nearly a quarter of first preferences. What looked like triumph on a Saturday night in Rye was, in the longer light, a portrait of an electorate searching for something the major parties have not yet offered. With November's state election approaching, the question is no longer simply who will win, but on whose terms — and at what cost to principle.
- The Liberal celebration at Rye's Verve Bar masked a 9.6-point collapse in primary support, exposing deep voter disillusionment beneath the confetti.
- One Nation's 24.7% first-preference haul transformed a byelection footnote into a statewide warning: minor parties are no longer peripheral forces but potential kingmakers.
- Premier Allan moved swiftly to frame the result as proof that a Liberal government would be inseparable from One Nation, anchoring her campaign around the spectre of a cuts-driven coalition.
- Liberal leader Jess Wilson refused to rule out preference deals with One Nation, a careful silence that itself became a statement about the party's narrowing options.
- One Nation's own week was turbulent — a candidate contradicted party immigration policy, and a $1.5 million private plane gift to Pauline Hanson drew scrutiny the party was eager to deflect.
Anthony Marsh won the Nepean byelection on Saturday night to a jubilant Liberal crowd, with the deputy leader already introducing Jess Wilson as Victoria's next premier. But the numbers beneath the celebration were sobering. The Liberal primary vote had fallen 9.6 points to 38.5%, while One Nation claimed 24.7% of first preferences and independent Tracee Hutchison took 21.3%. Labor hadn't even fielded a candidate. Marsh had held a safe seat — Liberal for all but four of the past forty years — but the margin of comfort had narrowed, and the electorate had clearly fragmented.
Wilson acknowledged as much at a press conference on parliament's steps, saying voters were exhausted by political spin and uncertain where to place their trust. Marsh, a three-time Mornington Peninsula mayor, pledged to fight for every voter regardless of how they'd marked their ballot. But the result's real significance lay not in his win — it lay in what One Nation's performance signalled for November's state election.
Premier Jacinta Allan moved quickly to define that significance. The Liberals, she argued, could not govern without One Nation's preferences, and both parties shared an appetite for cuts that Victorians could not afford. She pointed to her own budget, announced the same morning, which included $130 million for children's healthcare — funding for thousands of additional surgeries, specialist appointments, and a new GP referral system — as evidence of the contrast she intended to draw.
When pressed on preference negotiations, Wilson declined to commit either way, saying decisions would be made closer to November once candidates and policies were clearer. The deflection was its own kind of answer. One Nation now held leverage, and the Liberals could not easily dismiss the possibility of needing their support.
One Nation, meanwhile, had its own complications. Its Farrer byelection candidate had publicly contradicted the party's immigration cap policy, and questions swirled around a $1.5 million private plane gifted to Pauline Hanson. Barnaby Joyce attributed the policy slip to campaign pressure and brushed aside concerns about the donation, arguing that Labor and the Greens had their own powerful backers.
The Nepean byelection had itself been triggered by internal Liberal turmoil — the resignation of member Louise Staley following revelations about her deputy leader's conduct. That wound had not fully healed. Now, with six months until the state election, the Liberals faced a structural choice: rebuild primary support enough to govern alone, or accept the political cost of One Nation's embrace. Wilson's silence on preferences suggested the door remained open. Allan's framing suggested she intended to make that door as costly as possible to walk through.
Anthony Marsh walked into the Verve Bar at Rye hotel on Saturday night to raucous applause, and the Victorian Liberal party acted as though they'd just won the state election itself. The deputy leader introduced Jess Wilson as the "next premier of Victoria," and the room erupted. But the numbers told a more complicated story. Marsh had won Nepean comfortably enough on preferences—the seat has been Liberal territory for all but four of the past forty years—but the primary vote had collapsed by 9.6 percentage points, landing at 38.5%. In a field split three ways, One Nation had captured 24.7% of first preferences, while independent Tracee Hutchison pulled 21.3%. Labor, true to long-standing principle, hadn't bothered fielding a candidate at all.
The result exposed a fracturing electorate. Voters were clearly frustrated with the major parties, and they were looking elsewhere. Wilson acknowledged the lesson during a press conference on parliament's front steps: the electorate was "very fragmented," and people were "thinking, 'Where am I going to vote in this election?'" She'd heard it directly from voters at polling booths—they were "sick and tired of politicians spinning." Marsh, a three-time mayor of the Mornington Peninsula, promised to be on the ground every day until the November election, fighting for everyone who voted for him and everyone who didn't. But the real story wasn't about Marsh's victory. It was about what One Nation's performance meant for the state election six months away.
Premier Jacinta Allan wasted no time driving that point home. The Nepean result, she said, proved that "the Liberal party can't govern without One Nation." They would need to "rely on preference deals" to form government. Allan framed it as a warning: Victorians "can't afford" a Liberal-One Nation coalition because both parties were "on a unity ticket of cuts." She pointed to the Liberals' own internal chaos—they'd run out their deputy leader, which was why the byelection had been called in the first place—and contrasted Labor's investment in health services with what she characterized as the opposition's appetite for cuts. The budget she was announcing that same morning included $130 million for children's healthcare: $50 million for 4,000 additional planned surgeries, $16 million for 45,000 extra specialist appointments, and money for a new system allowing GPs to access specialist advice without formal referrals.
When pressed on whether the Liberals would do a preference deal with One Nation, Wilson refused to commit either way. Preferences happened at every election, she said—it was how the system worked. But the party wouldn't make those decisions until much closer to November, when candidates and policies were clearer. The deflection was telling. One Nation's strong showing had created a new political reality: the minor party now had leverage, and the Liberals couldn't simply dismiss the possibility of needing their preferences. The question hanging over the campaign was whether Wilson would be forced to make a deal she'd rather not make, or whether the Liberals could rebuild enough primary support to govern without One Nation's help.
Meanwhile, One Nation itself was managing its own complications. The party's candidate for the federal byelection in Farrer, David Farley, had stumbled badly during the week by suggesting that Australia's net overseas migration of 306,000 last year was "probably not" too many. One Nation's stated policy is a cap of 130,000 migrants annually. Barnaby Joyce, the One Nation MP, blamed "the pressure of a campaign" for the contradiction, but the slip revealed the tension between what the party said it stood for and what some of its candidates actually believed. Joyce also downplayed the significance of Gina Rinehart's gift of a private plane—worth more than $1.5 million—to Pauline Hanson's party. Journalists cared more about the donation than ordinary voters did, he claimed. He pointed out that Labor and the Greens had big backers too, from unions and prominent businesspeople. One Nation attracted support from successful people on the conservative side of politics, he said, because they believed the party represented genuine conservative values.
The Nepean byelection had been called because the previous Liberal member, Louise Staley, had resigned in February following revelations about her deputy leader's conduct. That internal rupture had weakened the party's standing, and One Nation had seized the opportunity. Now, with the state election looming in November, the Liberals faced a choice: rebuild their primary vote and govern alone, or accept that they might need One Nation's preferences and negotiate accordingly. Wilson's refusal to rule out a preference deal suggested the party was keeping its options open. But Allan's warning—that Victorians couldn't afford a Liberal-One Nation government—was already shaping the campaign narrative. The real contest wouldn't be decided in Nepean. It would be decided in November, when voters would have to choose not just between parties but between fundamentally different visions of what Victoria's government should do.
Citações Notáveis
The Liberal party can't govern without One Nation. They're going to rely on preference deals to have the support of One Nation.— Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan
We have a very fragmented electorate, and we're seeing people look beyond major parties.— Liberal leader Jess Wilson
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
So the Liberals won Nepean, but it sounds like they're not actually celebrating?
They're celebrating the win, but the numbers underneath are troubling. They lost nearly 10 percentage points of their primary vote. In a three-way race, that's a sign people are looking for alternatives.
And One Nation picked up a quarter of the vote?
Almost exactly. 24.7%. That's significant because it suggests One Nation could be a kingmaker in November. The Liberals might need their preferences to form government.
Which is why the premier keeps saying they "can't govern without One Nation"?
Exactly. Allan's trying to make that dependency toxic before the campaign even really starts. She's saying: if you vote Liberal, you're voting for a government that will need One Nation's support, and that means cuts.
But the Liberal leader won't say whether she'll do a preference deal with One Nation?
She's dodging it. She says preferences get decided closer to the election, when candidates and policies are clearer. But really, she's keeping her options open because she doesn't know if she'll need them.
So the Liberals are in a bind?
They are. If they rebuild their primary vote, they don't need One Nation. If they don't, they have to negotiate with a party that's now proven it can pull a quarter of voters. Either way, it's a problem they didn't have before Saturday night.
And One Nation itself is having trouble with its own candidates?
Their federal candidate in Farrer contradicted party policy on immigration. One Nation says cap migration at 130,000, but their candidate said 306,000 is probably fine. That kind of slip shows the party's still figuring out what it actually stands for.