Exit polls suggest a one-sided contest with clear NDA advantage
As ballot boxes open across Assam's thirty-five districts on May 4, a state of 25 million voters awaits confirmation of what exit polls have already suggested: that the ruling NDA coalition, under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, is poised to extend a decade of political dominance. The contest between continuity and change — between an entrenched governing alliance and a Congress-led opposition seeking to reclaim lost ground — will be resolved by evening. In a democracy, the count is always the moment when projection meets reality, and history is written not by polls but by the patient arithmetic of sealed boxes opened in daylight.
- Exit polls project a near-landslide for the NDA with roughly 102 of 126 seats, leaving the Congress-led alliance with an estimated 23 — a gap so wide it suggests less a contest than a rout.
- An extraordinary 85.96% voter turnout signals that Assam's electorate, far from being passive, arrived at the polls with something urgent to say.
- The opposition's Asom Sonmilito Morcha, a broad coalition of Congress, AIUDF, Left parties, and regional groups, faces the difficult task of translating alliance arithmetic into actual seats against a ruling bloc with deep organizational reach.
- Counting begins at eight in the morning across forty centers, and by nightfall the question of whether CM Sarma earns a second term — or whether Assam delivers a historic surprise — will be answered in hard numbers.
On May 4, election officials across Assam's thirty-five districts began opening the sealed ballot boxes from the April 9 vote. By evening, the state will know whether the National Democratic Alliance retains power or whether the Congress-led opposition has managed an upset. The threshold is clear: 64 of 126 assembly seats form a majority.
The election drew remarkable participation — over 85 percent of Assam's 25 million eligible voters cast ballots, reflecting the intensity of a state that has become one of India's most fiercely contested political arenas. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma leads the NDA coalition, which includes the BJP, Asom Gana Parishad, and Bodoland People's Front. Opposing him is Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi, anchoring the Asom Sonmilito Morcha — a broad front of Congress, AIUDF, Left parties, and regional organizations.
Exit polls released after voting closed paint a picture of sweeping NDA dominance. The Today's Chanakya survey projects around 102 seats for the NDA against roughly 23 for the opposition, with the ruling coalition commanding nearly 50 percent of the vote share. Multiple other polling firms converge on similar figures, with NDA estimates ranging between 88 and 101 seats. Some surveys suggest the BJP alone could cross 70 seats.
This pattern has precedent. In both 2021 and 2016, exit polls favored the NDA — and the NDA won, ending fifteen years of Congress rule in the latter cycle. A result matching today's projections would give Sarma another term and cement what has become a sustained era of NDA dominance in Assamese politics. But the count has not yet concluded, and in democracy, only the numbers in the boxes carry final authority.
The votes cast across Assam on April 9 are about to be counted. Today, May 4, election officials will open the sealed ballot boxes at forty counting centers spread across all thirty-five districts of the state, beginning at eight in the morning. By evening, the state will know whether the National Democratic Alliance keeps power or whether the Congress-led opposition has managed an upset. The stakes are straightforward: whoever wins 64 of the 126 assembly seats forms the next government.
The turnout itself was striking. More than 85 percent of Assam's 25 million eligible voters showed up to cast ballots—a strong signal of engagement in a state that has become one of India's most politically contested. The contest pits Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who leads the ruling NDA coalition, against Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi, who has anchored the opposition campaign. The NDA's Assam alliance includes the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Asom Gana Parishad, and the Bodoland People's Front. The Congress-led coalition, called the Asom Sonmilito Morcha, brings together the Indian National Congress, the All India United Democratic Front, Left parties, and several regional organizations.
Exit polls, released after voting ended, paint a picture of overwhelming NDA dominance. Today's Chanakya survey projects the NDA will win approximately 102 seats, with a margin of error of nine seats either way—comfortably above the 64-seat threshold needed for a majority. The Congress-led alliance, by the same poll, is estimated to capture around 23 seats. On vote share, the NDA is projected to command roughly 50 percent of the total vote, while the opposition alliance trails at 38 percent. Other polling firms—VoteVibe, JVC, and Chanakya Strategies—all point in the same direction. Their estimates for the NDA range between 88 and 101 seats. Some surveys suggest the BJP alone could win more than 70 seats, a figure that underscores the scale of the ruling coalition's apparent advantage.
This would not be the first time exit polls have favored the NDA in Assam. In 2021, similar projections preceded an actual NDA victory of 75 seats. Five years earlier, in 2016, the NDA crossed the majority threshold to form government, ending fifteen years of Congress rule in the state. If today's results match the exit poll predictions, Sarma would secure another term as chief minister, and the NDA would extend what has become a dominant streak in Assamese politics.
But exit polls are not results. Surprises have happened before. The counting will begin in a few hours, and by the time the sun sets, the actual numbers will be known. The question now is whether the projections hold or whether Assam delivers something unexpected.
Citas Notables
Exit polls suggest the NDA will win approximately 102 seats, well above the 64-seat majority threshold, while the Congress-led alliance is estimated to secure around 23 seats.— Today's Chanakya exit poll
La Conversación del Hearth Otra perspectiva de la historia
Why does an exit poll matter if we're getting the real count today anyway?
Because it shapes the narrative before the facts land. If the exit polls are right, the story becomes about how decisively the NDA won. If they're wrong, the story becomes about what they missed—and that changes how people interpret the result.
You mentioned 85 percent turnout. Is that high for Assam?
It's notably high. It suggests people cared enough to show up, which usually means the election felt consequential to them. That kind of participation can amplify whoever wins.
The Congress has lost power before in this state. What's different now?
In 2016, they lost it. In 2021, they didn't get it back. So this is about whether the NDA's grip has solidified or whether there's still an opening. The exit polls suggest the grip is tighter than ever.
Himanta Biswa Sarma—is he popular, or is this just about the national party machinery?
That's what the results will tell us. If the BJP alone wins 70 seats as some polls suggest, it's partly about him and his government's record. But it's also about the national wave.
What happens if the exit polls are wildly wrong?
Then we learn something about Assam that the pollsters missed. Maybe rural voters broke differently than expected. Maybe the opposition had more ground strength than the surveys caught. It would be the real story of the day.