Never have I heard my father so upset.
Across Iran's industrial heartland, the machinery of daily life has ground to a halt — not gradually, but under the weight of sustained bombardment and economic siege. Over five weeks, American and Israeli strikes have damaged some twenty thousand factories, unraveling the livelihoods of millions and sending food prices into a spiral that recalls the unrest of January. Iran's leaders, shaped by decades of sanctions into a posture of defiant self-reliance, are now wagering that their grip on the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's great energy chokepoints — will outlast the pressure bearing down on their people.
- Twenty thousand factories have been damaged or destroyed, silencing steel mills, petrochemical plants, and carpet looms alike — erasing roughly a fifth of Iran's entire production capacity in weeks.
- Food prices have surged as much as 75% in a single month, and with internet shutdowns cutting off small businesses and the UAE halting trade, ordinary Iranians are watching their savings and options disappear simultaneously.
- Between ten and twelve million jobs — nearly half the workforce — now hang in the balance, with unemployment insurance systems strained by the very industrial collapse they were designed to cushion.
- Iran's leaders are betting their strategic control of the Strait of Hormuz will force Trump to lift the blockade before the country's reserves, social systems, and public patience give out.
- The January protests, born of inflation and ending in bloodshed, cast a long shadow — economists and engineers alike warn that the current desperation could ignite something far larger.
In the carpet-weaving districts of Kashan, the looms have gone silent. One factory owner's son, now living in the United States, described his father still arriving each day at a workshop that once employed thirty people — now producing almost nothing. "Never have I heard my father so upset," he said. The scene is not unique. Across Iran, five weeks of sustained American and Israeli strikes have damaged roughly twenty thousand factories, crippling the steel mills, petrochemical complexes, pharmaceutical plants, and aluminum foundries that form the backbone of the country's industrial economy.
The human cost is immediate and widening. Iran's deputy labor minister acknowledged at least one million direct job losses, but economists warn the true exposure reaches ten to twelve million workers — nearly half the workforce. Prices tell their own story: chicken is 75% more expensive than a month ago, beef and lamb up 68%, dairy rising by half. For a population already pushed to the streets in January over inflation, these numbers are not abstractions.
The strikes targeted Iran's two largest non-oil export sectors — steel and petrochemicals — and the damage cascades outward through every industry that depends on them. A construction firm laid off half its headquarters staff and abandoned a major project. A consulting engineer who had just accepted a new position found the offer gone. "I am at the top one percent of society, and I am without a job," he said.
A U.S. naval blockade now threatens to sever both imports and the oil exports that generate roughly half of Iran's export revenue. The UAE, which supplied about a third of Iranian imports, has cut off trade following Iranian strikes. Internet shutdowns since January have gutted the small businesses that might otherwise absorb some of the shock.
Yet Iran's leadership is not without a card to play. They control the Strait of Hormuz, and have declared it will remain closed until the blockade is lifted and the war ends. The wager is that an economy hardened by decades of sanctions — with months of critical supplies stockpiled and significant overland trade routes — can outlast Washington's resolve. Some economists see logic in this bet. Others point to a social safety net now strained by the collapse of the very industries that fund it, and to savings that engineers warn will begin running out within weeks.
For Iran's factory owners, the calculus is simple and grim: recovery depends entirely on whether any negotiated settlement includes sanctions relief. "If we cannot lift the sanctions," one owner said, "then no, the optimistic forecast will not happen." For now, Iran's leaders are holding their breath — and their grip on the strait — waiting to see who blinks first.
In the carpet-weaving districts of Kashan, the looms have gone silent. Around eighty percent of the rug manufacturers in this industrial heartland have shuttered their operations. One factory owner's son, who fled to the United States, described visiting his family's workshop—a place that once produced hundreds of hand-finished rugs each month and employed twenty to thirty people. His father still goes there every day, though there is almost nothing to do. "Never have I heard my father so upset," the son said.
This scene repeats across Iran's industrial landscape. Over five weeks of sustained bombardment, American and Israeli strikes have hit thousands of factories, leaving the country's economy in a state of acute distress. The damage extends far beyond military targets. Steel mills that once anchored the nation's manufacturing base have gone dark. Dairies cannot find packaging for their products. Pharmaceutical plants, petrochemical complexes, aluminum foundries, and cement works have been damaged or destroyed. According to Hadi Kahalzadeh, an economist at Brandeis University, the strikes have crippled roughly twenty thousand factories—about one-fifth of Iran's entire production capacity.
The human toll is immediate and spreading. The government's deputy labor minister acknowledged that at least one million jobs have been lost directly because of the war. But that figure understates the crisis. Kahalzadeh warns that between ten and twelve million jobs are now at risk—roughly half of Iran's entire workforce. The ripple effects are already visible in prices. Chicken has become seventy-five percent more expensive in the past month alone. Beef and lamb have jumped sixty-eight percent. Dairy products have increased by roughly half. For a population already struggling with inflation that sparked mass protests in January, these increases are devastating.
The strikes targeted Iran's two largest non-oil export sectors: steel and petrochemicals. The country's biggest steelmakers—Mobarakeh Steel and Khuzestan Steel—have halted production. More than fifty petrochemical complexes have shut down. Because so much of Iran's industrial ecosystem depends on these two sectors, the damage cascades outward. A construction contractor laid off half of its one hundred eighty headquarters staff and had to abandon a major project, eliminating a thousand jobs. A consulting engineer who had just accepted a new position before the war found his job offer evaporating. "I am at the top one percent of society, and I am without a job," he said. "I am super worried about my future."
The blockade compounds the crisis. The United States has begun choking off Iranian ports, threatening to cut off both imports and the oil exports that generate roughly half of the country's export revenue. Iran earned approximately ninety-eight billion dollars in exports in 2025; a complete blockade would devastate government finances and the social safety net. The internet has been largely shut down since the January protests, gutting small and medium-sized businesses that depend on online sales. Iranian strikes on the United Arab Emirates—which supplied roughly a third of Iran's imports—have prompted that country to cut off trade.
Yet Iran's leaders are gambling on a different kind of leverage. They control the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. Iranian officials have declared they will only reopen the waterway if the blockade is lifted and the war ends. The calculation is stark: they are betting that an economy forged through decades of international sanctions—built to be self-reliant, hardened by isolation—can endure longer than the Trump administration's appetite for economic pressure.
There are some grounds for this wager. Iran maintains substantial reserves of critical supplies. At the end of 2025, the country had stockpiled enough electrical machinery for nearly eight months, cement for nearly six months, and steel and iron for four months. These reserves could be stretched further through rationing. Some economists note that roughly half of Iran's non-oil trade moves overland or through Caspian Sea ports, making a complete blockade difficult to enforce.
But the government's ability to manage the crisis is weakening. Officials have promised to increase unemployment insurance, but Iran's social security system depends heavily on stakes in petrochemical companies and other key industries—the very sectors now crippled by strikes. As funding dries up, the system's capacity to absorb millions of newly jobless workers will shrink. One engineer warned that people's savings will begin to run out in the coming weeks. The January protests, which started over inflation and evolved into calls for the end of the Islamic Republic itself, were crushed with bloodshed. Economic desperation of this magnitude could trigger similar upheaval.
Industry leaders acknowledge that recovery depends on one thing: whether Iran can negotiate an end to international sanctions. "If we cannot lift the sanctions in any agreements, then no, the optimistic forecast will not happen," said one factory owner. For now, Iran's leaders are holding their breath and their grip on the Strait of Hormuz, betting that Trump will blink first.
Citações Notáveis
I am at the top one percent of society, and I am without a job. I am super worried about my future.— A consulting engineer in Tehran
If we cannot lift the sanctions in any agreements, then no, the optimistic forecast will not happen.— A factory owner and member of Iran's industrialist council
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does control of the Strait of Hormuz matter so much here? It seems like a distant lever for people losing their jobs right now.
It's the only card Iran has left to play. When your factories are destroyed and your ports are blockaded, you can't export your way out. But you can disrupt everyone else's exports. The strait carries roughly a third of the world's seaborne oil. If Iran closes it, energy prices spike globally. Trump has to weigh whether squeezing Iran is worth the economic pain to American allies and voters.
But can Iran actually afford to keep the strait closed? Doesn't that hurt them too?
Absolutely. But they've spent decades preparing for exactly this scenario—sanctions, isolation, economic siege. They have reserves. They've built redundancy into their supply chains. The question is whether those reserves last longer than Trump's political will. It's a game of chicken with people's livelihoods as the stakes.
The story mentions that even wealthy people are now unemployed and terrified. Doesn't that suggest the system is breaking down faster than the reserves can sustain it?
Yes. When someone in the top one percent is without work and worried about savings running out in weeks, it signals the crisis is moving up the income ladder. That's when you get the kind of social unrest the government fears—not just the poor protesting, but the middle class too. The January protests were already calling for the end of the regime. Economic collapse could make those demands much harder to suppress.
Is there any scenario where Iran's gamble works?
Only if Trump decides the global economic pain of a closed strait, combined with the risk of wider conflict, is too high a price. Iran would need to hold out long enough for that calculation to shift. Their reserves buy them time, but not much. The real question is whether their social fabric holds together while they wait.