If he wins, we all are.
In the shifting tides of British politics, Andy Burnham finds the door to Parliament unexpectedly ajar — a sitting MP has stepped aside, and a prime minister weakened by internal revolt has chosen not to stand in his way. Yet the path from candidacy to consequence runs through Makerfield, a constituency where Reform UK has just swept every ward and claimed half the vote. What unfolds there will not merely decide one man's career, but may answer a deeper question the Labour Party has been unable to face: whether it can still speak to the people it was built to represent.
- Two obstacles that once blocked Burnham's return to Parliament have collapsed in quick succession — a rival MP stood down and a weakened Number 10 declined to intervene, opening a by-election path that seemed impossible just months ago.
- Reform UK has transformed Makerfield into a fortress, sweeping all eleven wards in recent local elections with roughly half the vote, and Nigel Farage has vowed to commit every resource his party has to defending it.
- Labour's internal fractures are deepening in plain sight — nearly a third of the parliamentary party has called for Starmer's resignation, and the Makerfield manoeuvre is being read as a barely concealed leadership transition in motion.
- Figures from across Labour's warring factions are quietly coalescing around Burnham, with one minister distilling the mood to its essence: 'It's Burnham now, if he can beat Reform.'
- The stakes are absolute and unforgiving — a victory hands Burnham the Labour leadership and a credible route to Downing Street, while defeat would permanently extinguish ambitions he has carried through two previous leadership bids.
Andy Burnham's route back to Westminster has opened with unexpected speed. A Labour MP in Makerfield has stepped aside, and Number 10 — far less commanding than it was two years ago, when Keir Starmer used his grip on the National Executive Committee to block a similar bid — has signalled it will not stand in Burnham's way this time. The political ground beneath Starmer has shifted considerably: nearly a third of his own party has called for his resignation, including his health secretary and four ministers.
But the obstacles removed are not the same as the seat won. Reform UK swept Makerfield at last week's local elections, taking all eleven wards and roughly half the vote — a dramatic escalation from the general election two years prior, when they finished second with around a third. Nigel Farage has pledged his party's full commitment to the fight. The by-election will be hard and bruising.
What makes the moment stranger still is who stepped aside to make it possible. Josh Simons, the outgoing MP, is no natural Burnham ally — he ran Labour Together, a right-leaning think tank, and is close to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose immigration policies have antagonised the Labour left. That someone from this wing would voluntarily clear the path is being interpreted as a rare signal of cross-factional recognition that something must give.
Labour figures from competing corners of the party are privately lining up behind Burnham. One minister, who had been defending Starmer's position as recently as Wednesday, offered a blunt summary: 'It's Burnham now, if he can beat Reform.' Deputy Leader Lucy Powell is expected to endorse him publicly, framing him as central to the party's future.
Not all are convinced. Luke Akehurst warned that the internal manoeuvring risks triggering a general election within months, with serious consequences for economic and national stability. Others have called the whole episode disgraceful, insisting the party cannot be reduced to one person's ambition. Starmer, for his part, is refusing to resign.
The campaign strategy Burnham adopts will depend on whether Starmer remains in post. If he does, Burnham may have to run explicitly as the vehicle for change at the top. If Starmer announces a departure before the campaign begins, Burnham will need to run on the government's record while promising something bolder. Either way, the by-election is the defining test of his political life — and the prize, should he win it, is almost certainly the Labour leadership and the keys to Downing Street.
Andy Burnham's path back to Parliament has suddenly opened up. A Labour MP from Makerfield has stepped aside, and Number 10 has signaled it will not block the Greater Manchester mayor's candidacy this time around. Two years ago, Prime Minister Keir Starmer used his control over Labour's National Executive Committee to prevent Burnham from standing in a similar by-election. That was a different moment—Starmer had authority then. Now, with nearly a third of his own party calling for his resignation, including his health secretary and four ministers, that authority has evaporated. The political ground has shifted beneath him.
But clearing those hurdles is not the same as winning the seat. That is where the real test begins. At the general election two years ago, Reform UK finished second in Makerfield with just under a third of the vote. Last week's local elections told a different story entirely. Reform swept the constituency, winning all eleven wards and capturing roughly half the vote. Nigel Farage has already promised his party will "throw absolutely everything at it." The by-election will be messy and bitter, fought against an opponent that has momentum and resources.
What is striking is how Burnham's candidacy has begun to function as a kind of pressure valve for Labour's internal chaos. Josh Simons, the Makerfield MP stepping down, is not a natural ally of Burnham. Simons is close to Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose immigration reforms have infuriated the Labour left. He ran Labour Together, a think tank associated with the party's right wing. That a figure from this faction would voluntarily step aside for Burnham is being read as a signal of unity—or at least, a recognition that something has to give.
Labour figures across the party's competing wings have begun privately suggesting they would support Burnham for leader if he wins the by-election. Some of these same people previously backed other leadership candidates. One minister said of Simons's decision: "I think Josh has just single-handedly given the Labour Party a route to winning back the trust of the British people." When asked if that meant supporting Burnham for leader, the answer was blunt: "If he wins, we all are." Another minister, who as recently as Wednesday was defending Starmer's position, said simply: "It's Burnham now, if he can beat Reform." Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, a longtime Burnham ally, is expected to publicly endorse him on Friday, calling him a key player for the party's future.
Not everyone sees it this way. Luke Akehurst, a prominent voice on Labour's right, warned that this level of internal maneuvering risks triggering a general election within months and causing deep political instability with real consequences for the economy and national security. Another Labour figure called the whole thing "disgraceful behaviour" from both Simons and Burnham, insisting the party is "not about one person or ego." For now, Starmer is refusing to resign and has told allies he will fight any leadership contest that emerges. But the focus will inevitably shift to Makerfield.
The by-election campaign itself will be unusual. One former party strategist suggested Burnham's only viable strategy is to position himself as the vehicle for removing Starmer from Downing Street. Alternatively, if Starmer announces a departure date before the campaign begins, Burnham will have to run on the government's record—promising to correct its mistakes and U-turns while offering something bolder and more imaginative. Either way, it is the biggest test of his political career. He has run for Labour leader twice before. Lose this by-election, and those ambitions are finished. Win it, and he will have demonstrated something Starmer has not: the ability to win back voters who have drifted to Reform. The prize, almost certainly, is the Labour leadership and Number 10.
Notable Quotes
I think Josh has just single-handedly given the Labour Party a route to winning back the trust of the British people.— Unnamed Labour minister
Nigel Farage promised his party will throw absolutely everything at the by-election.— Nigel Farage, Reform UK leader
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Burnham's candidacy matter so much right now? He's a mayor—why is this by-election being treated as a potential turning point for the entire party?
Because Labour is in freefall. Starmer has lost control of his own MPs. When a party starts calling for its leader to resign, it's looking for an alternative, and Burnham represents something Starmer doesn't: someone who can actually win voters back from Reform. That's the real crisis.
But Reform just dominated Makerfield. How is that a sign Burnham can win?
It's not a sign he will win—it's a sign of how steep the climb is. But if he does win, he'll have done something Starmer couldn't: reverse the tide. That's why everyone suddenly wants to back him. They're betting on his ability to perform.
The MP stepping down, Josh Simons—he's not even from Burnham's wing of the party. Why would he do that?
That's the signal. Simons is from the right, close to Mahmood. If the right is willing to step aside for Burnham, it suggests the party sees him as the only way out of this mess. It's a unity play, but it's also an admission that Starmer is finished.
What happens if Burnham loses to Reform?
His career as a national politician is over. He's run for leader twice. A third loss, especially to Farage's party, ends it. But if he wins, he's almost certainly the next prime minister.
Is Starmer actually going to resign?
He says he won't. But the math is against him. If Burnham wins Makerfield, the pressure becomes unbearable. The party will have its answer about who should lead.
So this by-election is really a referendum on Starmer's leadership?
It's worse than that. It's a referendum on whether Labour can survive at all. If Reform keeps winning, Labour is finished. Burnham is the party's last bet that they can get those voters back.