China is already sprinting and they're preparing for a marathon.
Between 2020 and 2025, China has quietly but unmistakably reshaped the physical landscape of its military ambitions, erecting more than two million square meters of new missile production infrastructure across 136 facilities — a transformation visible from space. At a moment when the United States is drawing down its own weapons reserves through conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, Beijing is accelerating a strategic sprint that experts say is designed not merely to modernize, but to dominate. The expansion centers on China's Rocket Force and its growing arsenal of ballistic and nuclear missiles, with Taiwan as the horizon and American intervention as the obstacle to be neutralized. What satellite imagery reveals in concrete and steel, analysts read as the opening chapter of a new arms race — one already underway, whether the world has named it yet or not.
- China has nearly doubled its rate of missile facility construction since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, drawing urgent lessons about how to overwhelm defenses and isolate a battlefield.
- More than 60 percent of 136 identified Chinese missile sites show active expansion, with blast walls, new towers, and visible weapons components signaling a buildup that is deliberate and accelerating — not incremental.
- The United States, meanwhile, has burned through roughly a quarter of its THAAD interceptor stockpile defending Israel, exposing a supply gap that Pentagon contracts with Lockheed Martin are struggling to close at pace.
- China's DF-26 'Guam killer' missile — including a new hypersonic variant — sits at the center of a strategy designed to push the US Navy beyond striking distance and deter intervention over Taiwan.
- An anticorruption purge has removed senior Rocket Force officials, raising questions about procurement integrity, yet the physical evidence of expansion continues to mount regardless of internal turbulence.
- Analysts warn the gap between Chinese missile capacity and American supply readiness is widening into a structural vulnerability — one that, in the words of one expert, risks turning an already-present cold war into a hot one.
Satellite images don't lie. Between early 2020 and late 2025, China added more than two million square meters of new floor space across facilities tied to missile production and its Rocket Force — the military branch that controls the country's nuclear arsenal. More than 60 percent of the 136 sites examined showed signs of expansion: blast walls rising from valleys, new construction towers, missile components visible on open tarmacs. The scale is staggering, and it arrives precisely when the United States is struggling to replenish its own weapons stocks.
This is not quiet modernization. William Alberque, a former NATO arms control director, calls it the opening phase of a new arms race. Since Xi Jinping took power in 2012, billions have flowed into transforming the People's Liberation Army into a world-class fighting force, with the Rocket Force at its center. The Pentagon estimated in late 2024 that China's missile supply had grown by 50 percent over four years. Beijing's official defense budget rose 7.2 percent this year to roughly $245 billion — the fourth consecutive year of growth above 7 percent, with experts believing the real figure is higher still.
The pace accelerated sharply after Russia invaded Ukraine. Analysts say Beijing absorbed a critical lesson: overwhelming air defenses with cheaper munitions clears the path for ballistic missiles to reach their targets. That calculus is being applied to Taiwan. Missile expert Decker Eveleth describes the strategy plainly — destroy ports, helicopter bases, and supply depots in theater while keeping everything else, meaning the US Navy, out. One Beijing facility producing the DF-26 medium-range ballistic missile, known as the 'Guam killer,' has expanded by nearly 50 percent since 2020. A new hypersonic variant, the DF-26D, made its public debut at China's September military parade.
The United States faces a contrasting problem: depletion. A 12-day conflict defending Israel consumed roughly 25 percent of America's THAAD interceptor stockpile — each unit costing $12.7 million and slow to replace. The Pentagon has expanded its Lockheed Martin contract by over $2 billion, but production pace lags behind demand. THAAD is considered a cornerstone of US deterrence against China, and the widening gap between Chinese missile capacity and American readiness is alarming analysts.
China's expansion has not been frictionless. An anticorruption campaign has removed multiple senior Rocket Force officials, including two former defense ministers, amid hints of procurement fraud. Yet the construction continues. Some facilities sit openly in cities; others occupy remote mountain valleys. All are expanding faster than the United States can match. As Pacific Forum president David Santoro puts it: 'I think there already is a cold war. It's across all domains and the risk is that it will turn into a hot war.'
Satellite images don't lie. They show concrete and steel where farmland used to be, blast walls rising from valleys, and what appear to be missile components sitting openly on tarmacs. Between early 2020 and late 2025, China built more than 2 million square meters of new floor space across facilities tied to missile production and its Rocket Force—the military branch that controls the country's nuclear arsenal. More than 60 percent of the 136 sites CNN examined showed signs of expansion. The scale is staggering, and it arrives at a moment when the United States is struggling to replenish its own weapons stocks.
This is not a quiet modernization. It is a deliberate, accelerating sprint. William Alberque, a former NATO arms control director, calls it the opening phase of a new arms race. "China is already sprinting and they're preparing for a marathon," he said. Since Xi Jinping took power in 2012, he has poured billions into transforming the People's Liberation Army into what he calls a "world-class" fighting force. The Rocket Force—an elite branch overseeing ballistic and nuclear missiles—sits at the center of that vision. Xi has described it as the "core of strategic deterrence" and a cornerstone of China's position as a major power. The numbers back the rhetoric. In December 2024, the Pentagon estimated that China's rocket force had increased its missile supply by 50 percent over the preceding four years. This year, Beijing approved a 7.2 percent boost to its defense budget, bringing official spending to approximately $245 billion. That marks four consecutive years of more than 7 percent growth, though experts believe the real figure is substantially higher.
The expansion accelerated sharply after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. CNN's analysis of satellite imagery shows that China nearly doubled the rate of construction at missile production sites in the two years following the invasion. Military analysts say Beijing is drawing urgent lessons from that conflict. Russia's experience has shown that overwhelming air defenses with cheaper munitions—drones, for instance—clears the way for more sophisticated ballistic missiles to reach their targets. That lesson is reshaping Chinese calculations about Taiwan. Experts say the missiles being produced at these expanding facilities are central to any potential Chinese military attempt to seize the island, which Beijing claims as its own territory. The strategy hinges on what defense analysts call an "anti-access denial bubble"—a zone off China's coast designed to keep the US Navy at a distance and discourage American intervention. Decker Eveleth, a missile forces expert at the national security group CNA, describes the goal plainly: "They want to set the conditions for the invasion of Taiwan. So that's shooting at ports, shooting at helicopter bases, shooting at supply bases. They want to destroy things in theater and keep everything else out."
One facility that CNN identified, located in Beijing, has expanded by nearly 50 percent since 2020 and is involved in producing the DF-26 medium-range ballistic missile—a weapon defense experts call the "Guam killer" because of its range. A variant, the DF-26D, is tipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle that was displayed publicly for the first time at China's military parade in September. Its unpredictable flight path makes it difficult, though not impossible, for interceptors to stop it before it reaches Guam, home to Andersen Air Force Base, a launching point for US long-range bombers.
Meanwhile, the United States faces a different problem: depletion. In July, CNN found that the US had burned through roughly 25 percent of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile interceptors while defending Israel against Iranian ballistic strikes during a 12-day conflict in June. Each THAAD interceptor costs approximately $12.7 million and takes considerable time to manufacture. The Pentagon has since expanded a contract with Lockheed Martin by more than $2 billion to increase production, but the pace remains slow relative to demand. The THAAD system is considered a cornerstone of US deterrence strategy against China, yet experts warn that Pentagon supply constraints, combined with Beijing's drive for more advanced and numerous missiles, create a widening vulnerability.
China's expansion has not proceeded without friction. An ongoing anticorruption campaign within senior military ranks has removed multiple high-ranking officials with ties to the Rocket Force, including two former defense ministers, in the past two years alone. Official reports hint at corruption tied to weapons procurement. A senior US defense official acknowledged in December that Beijing has identified corruption as a serious threat to the political reliability and operational capability of the PLA. Still, the physical evidence of expansion is undeniable. CNN identified the sites by examining public records from China's two largest state-owned defense contractors—the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation and the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation—and cross-checking findings with geospatial analysis. Some facilities sit openly in cities, nestled between residential buildings and restaurants. Others occupy remote mountain valleys. Many are ringed by tall dirt and concrete berms, a precaution against explosions. Rocket parts sit visible on tarmacs. Blast walls rise from construction sites. The infrastructure is expanding faster than the United States can match it, and experts say the implications extend far beyond military hardware. David Santoro, president of the Pacific Forum, puts it starkly: "I think there already is a cold war. It's across all domains and the risk is that it will turn into a hot war."
Notable Quotes
This is China positioning itself as a global superpower. We're in the initial phases of a new arms race.— William Alberque, senior adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum and former NATO director of arms control
They want to set the conditions for the invasion of Taiwan. So that's shooting at ports, shooting at helicopter bases, shooting at supply bases.— Decker Eveleth, associate research analyst at CNA and expert on China's missile forces
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does the physical expansion of these facilities matter so much? Couldn't China just be upgrading existing plants?
The scale tells you something about intent. More than 2 million square meters of new construction in five years isn't maintenance—it's a statement that they're preparing to produce missiles at volumes they weren't capable of before. The satellite images show blast walls, bunkers, new towers. These are built for a different level of output.
And the timing—why the acceleration after Ukraine?
Because Ukraine showed China something real. They watched Russia try to overwhelm air defenses with cheap drones so expensive missiles could get through. That changes the math on Taiwan. If you need to saturate defenses, you need thousands of missiles, not hundreds. The estimates Beijing was working with—5,000 or 10,000—suddenly looked too low.
But the US is still the nuclear superpower. Why should this worry Washington so much?
Because nuclear weapons are a ceiling, not a floor. What matters in a Taiwan scenario is conventional missiles—the ones that can hit ports, airfields, supply bases. China is building capacity for those at a pace the US can't match right now. And the US is depleted from Ukraine and Israel. That gap is the real problem.
Is there any chance this is just posturing? Visible expansion to look strong?
Possible, but unlikely to be the whole story. These are state-owned enterprises with real production mandates. The corruption purges suggest Beijing is serious about making sure the system actually works. And the specific facilities—the ones producing the DF-26, the hypersonic variants—those aren't for show. They're operational weapons.
What stops this? Is there a negotiation path?
Not an obvious one. Xi has made military modernization a core part of his vision for China as a superpower. You'd need a fundamental shift in how Beijing sees its strategic interests, and right now Taiwan and regional dominance are non-negotiable. The best the US can do is accelerate its own production and hope the cost of invasion becomes prohibitive.