Trump amenaza a Cuba con cortar petróleo venezolano tras tomar control de Caracas

Donald Trump has seized on his administration's recent takeover of Venezuela to turn up the pressure on Cuba, threatening to cut off the island's lifeline of subsidized oil and cash that has sustained it for more than two decades. The ultimatum came just days after the CIA and U.S. military removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, from Caracas. On January 11, Trump posted on Truth Social that Cuba must "reach an agreement" with his administration or face the consequences—namely, the complete halt of Venezuelan petroleum and money that now flows through American hands. "We work very well with her," Trump said of Venezuela's new interim president, Delcy Rodríguez. "She gives us everything we ask for."

The threat carries real weight because Cuba depends almost entirely on Venezuelan oil to survive. Reuters estimates Venezuela has been sending Cuba roughly 27,000 barrels of crude per day—far below the 53,000 promised under a 2000 cooperation agreement signed when Hugo Chávez was in power, but still crucial for an island that imports 80 percent of what it consumes. Trump has made clear that flow will stop. "NO MORE OIL OR MONEY FOR CUBA. ZERO!" he wrote, in his characteristic all-caps style. He also referenced the at least 32 Cuban military personnel who died when U.S. forces attacked Fort Tiuna in Caracas, where Maduro had been hiding, suggesting Cuba no longer needs to prop up Venezuelan dictators.

Cuba's government has rejected the demand. President Miguel Díaz-Canel said on social media that his nation is "free, independent and sovereign" and that no one dictates what it does. Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez denied that Cuba had ever received payment for security services to Venezuela, as Trump claimed, and asserted Cuba's right to buy fuel from any willing seller. Yet the defiance masks a desperate situation. The island is experiencing its worst economic crisis since the 1959 revolution. Extreme poverty affects 88 percent of the population. Inflation runs above 15 percent annually. The peso has lost nearly 20 times its value against the dollar since 2019. Industrial production in 2024 hit its lowest level in 40 years. An estimated 1.4 million Cubans could not meet their daily caloric needs in 2023. People in Havana dig through garbage to eat. The electrical grid, powered partly by Venezuelan diesel, is collapsing from decades of neglect.

This economic collapse has sparked unprecedented unrest. The Cuban Observatory of Conflicts recorded 11,268 protests, complaints, and critical statements against the government in 2025 alone—a 25 percent jump from the previous year. Human rights groups say 1,197 political prisoners are held in Cuban jails. The government's grip on legitimacy is weakening. Díaz-Canel, who belongs to the post-revolutionary generation, lacks the historical credibility of the Castro brothers. Some Cubans see Trump's pressure as an opportunity for change, though they hope it comes peacefully. Others question why the island cannot have multiple political parties or different ways of thinking.

Trump's strategy appears aimed not at immediate regime collapse but at forcing transformation. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the administration will allow Mexico to continue sending oil to Cuba—at least for now—because the goal is to push the island to "abandon its communist system" and open itself to business with the United States. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, himself the son of Cuban exiles who fled before the revolution, has long argued that removing Maduro would be a fatal blow to Havana's main supporter. He has now achieved that goal. Rubio is a central figure in this pressure campaign, a hardliner shaped by his family's experience of exile and his vision of reasserting American dominance in the Western Hemisphere.

Cuba has few alternatives. Mexico has emerged as a backup supplier, sending fuel shipments like the 86,000 barrels that arrived in Havana harbor last weekend. But Trump could impose tariffs on Mexican oil bound for Cuba, as he has threatened to do with Iranian trade. The island also loses income from medical missions abroad—a system that generates between 6 and 8 billion dollars annually by sending doctors and health workers to dozens of countries and keeping 85 percent of their wages. Trump's administration has tightened restrictions on those missions. Tourism, once a vital source of hard currency, has collapsed from 4.7 million visitors in 2018 to roughly 1.8 million in 2025, partly due to U.S. visa restrictions and partly because the island's infrastructure and services have deteriorated so badly.

Díaz-Canel insists there are no negotiations with Washington, only technical contacts on migration matters. He says any serious dialogue must be based on international law, mutual respect, and non-interference—not threats and coercion. But the clock is ticking. Trump has already suspended visa issuance to 75 countries, including Cuba, starting January 21. He has also threatened 25 percent tariffs on anyone doing business with Iran, a Cuban ally. The combination of lost Venezuelan oil, tightened sanctions, and internal economic collapse could force Cuba's hand far faster than any military intervention. Whether the regime transforms, collapses, or finds a way to survive the coming months remains unclear, but the pressure is now immense and the margin for error has vanished.