The best ball-striker on the planet, playing through pain
After a decade away, the PGA Tour returns to Trump National Doral's Blue Monster — a course that has always demanded more than power, asking instead for precision, patience, and nerve. The 2026 Cadillac Championship arrives with a $20 million purse and a thinned field, several marquee names absent, leaving room for a different kind of champion to emerge. In golf, as in life, the absence of the expected often reveals who truly belongs.
- The Blue Monster awakens after ten years of silence — 7,739 yards of water, bunkers, and unforgiving greens that play closer to a major than a regular tour stop.
- A $20 million signature event is missing some of its biggest stars, with McIlroy, Schauffele, and four other top-ranked players all absent, reshaping the competitive landscape entirely.
- Collin Morikawa carries both the betting models and an injury question mark — his recent top-ten finishes at The Masters and RBC Heritage while compromised suggest either remarkable resilience or a risk being carefully managed.
- Sam Burns brings length and a rare putting touch on Bermuda greens, while Hideki Matsuyama offers quiet value and Adam Scott, at 45, is outdriving players half his age on approach shots.
- The field is thinner but the course is no less brutal — and in a week where favorites are absent, the player who fits the course best may matter more than the one with the lowest odds.
The PGA Tour's return to Trump National Doral ends a ten-year absence, and the Blue Monster — a par-72 stretching nearly 7,800 yards with water hazards, deep bunkers, and demanding green complexes — will once again separate the precise from the merely powerful. The 2026 Cadillac Championship carries $20 million and signature-event status, but several of the tour's biggest names, including Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele, are not in the field, which meaningfully changes how to evaluate the remaining contenders.
Collin Morikawa leads the analytical models despite an injury that forced him out after one hole at THE PLAYERS Championship last month. What keeps him at the top of the models is his performance since — a tie for seventh at The Masters, a tie for fourth at the RBC Heritage, and a win at Pebble Beach earlier this season. He leads the tour in strokes gained on approach shots, the single most predictive statistic in golf, and his accuracy off the tee suits a course that punishes wayward drives. The reasoning is straightforward: a player protecting himself for the PGA Championship two weeks away would not enter a field like this unless he believed he could compete.
Sam Burns presents a compelling alternative. He ranks second in strokes gained putting on Bermuda greens over his last 50 rounds and eleventh in ball speed in this field — a combination of length and touch that suits Doral's demands. His recent record includes top-ten finishes at both The Masters and the U.S. Open this year. Hideki Matsuyama offers value at longer odds, with wins at courses sharing Doral's characteristics and a short game that remains world-class. Adam Scott, now 45, ranks third on tour this season in strokes gained on approach shots and was the last man to win here in 2016 — though his current form, not his history, is the real argument for him.
In a week defined by absences and uncertainty, the player who fits the course most precisely may matter more than the one with the most name recognition. Morikawa, for those still holding him in season-long formats, remains the clearest expression of that principle.
The PGA Tour is returning to Trump National Doral this week for the first time in a decade, and the Blue Monster—that famously punishing par-72 stretched across 7,739 yards—will once again test the world's best golfers. The course is a brute: tricky green complexes, deep bunkers, water everywhere. It plays like a major championship, and it demands precision.
The 2026 Cadillac Championship carries a $20 million purse and signature-event status, yet several of the tour's biggest names are absent. Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Åberg, Robert MacIntyre, and Patrick Cantlay are all out. That thins the field considerably, which changes the calculus for anyone looking to pick a winner.
Collin Morikawa leads the betting models despite carrying an injury cloud. He withdrew after the first hole at THE PLAYERS Championship last month and has been playing hurt since, yet his recent form tells a different story. He finished tied for seventh at The Masters and tied for fourth at the RBC Heritage, both while clearly compromised. Before that, he won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, tied for seventh at The Genesis Invitational, and finished fifth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational—a course with similarities to Doral. Morikawa leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained on approach shots this year, the most predictive stat in golf. He's also one of the tour's most accurate drivers. The thinking here is simple: if Morikawa believed he risked serious injury by playing this week, with the PGA Championship just two weeks away, he wouldn't be in the field.
Sam Burns offers a different angle. Doral is one of the longest courses on tour, with Bermuda greens, and Burns hits the ball hard—he's 11th in ball speed in this field over the last three months. More importantly, he ranks second in strokes gained putting over his last 50 rounds on Bermuda grass. He's a top-three putter globally, and that combination of length and touch plays well at demanding courses with strong fields. His recent record backs this up: he was tied for seventh at both the U.S. Open and The Masters this year, and he's gained strokes with his irons, driver, and putter in nearly all of his last four starts.
Hideki Matsuyama, the 2021 Masters champion, represents value at longer odds. He won The Genesis Invitational in 2023—another course that shares characteristics with Doral—and he won the 2023 FedExCup at TPC Southwind, which also features Bermuda greens and water hazards. His driver is his weakest club, but his long irons are world-class, his short game is exceptional, and he's putting well this season. Former Masters champions have historically played well at Doral.
Adam Scott, now 45, is hitting the ball faster than most of the young players on tour. He ranks sixth in ball speed over the last three months and third on tour this season in strokes gained on approach shots. He's fourth in approach shots from 200 yards and beyond, and tenth in par-5 scoring—all crucial at a course where long approach shots and par-5 performance separate winners from the field. Scott was the last champion here in 2016, though that's almost beside the point given his current form.
Daniel Berger rounds out the picks. He lost in a playoff at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, another Doral comp course, and he's a Florida native who putts well on Bermuda greens. He's one of the tour's best ball-strikers, and two of his four career wins came at the St. Jude Championship. The odds are enormous, but the course fit is real.
For the one-and-done pick—the single golfer to use in a season-long format—Morikawa makes the most sense. He's the third betting favorite, but only 47 percent of entrants still have him available. People are spooked by the injury, and they're drawn to longer hitters on a massive course. But Morikawa is arguably the best ball-striker on the planet right now, a two-time major champion, and he's won at difficult courses. In a shortened field, with good form, he's the play.
Citações Notáveis
Morikawa leads the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained on approach shots this year, the most predictive stat in golf.— Betting analysis
Burns ranks second in strokes gained putting over his last 50 rounds on Bermuda grass and is a top-three putter globally.— Betsperts Golf data
A Conversa do Hearth Outra perspectiva sobre a história
Why does Morikawa's injury matter less than it seems to?
Because he wouldn't be here if he thought he'd make it worse. The PGA Championship is in two weeks. He's not risking a major for a signature event.
But he withdrew at THE PLAYERS. Doesn't that suggest he's really hurt?
It does. But look at what he's done since—T7 at The Masters, T4 at the RBC Heritage. He's playing through it and still competing at the highest level. His approach game is elite.
What makes Doral so different from other tour stops?
It's long, it has water everywhere, and the greens are brutally complex. You need to hit long approach shots well and make putts on Bermuda. Most players can't do both.
Why is Sam Burns a better bet than someone like Cameron Young?
Burns is second in putting on Bermuda over his last 50 rounds. Young is a bomber, but Doral isn't just about distance. It's about precision and touch. Burns has both.
Matsuyama at those odds seems like a steal.
He is. He's won at Genesis, which plays similarly. He won the St. Jude on Bermuda with water. He's a proven winner at the right kind of courses. The market is undervaluing him.
What's the case against these picks?
McIlroy and Schauffele aren't here, which weakens the field. That helps everyone. But Morikawa's injury is real, Burns hasn't won in a while, and Matsuyama is aging. Nothing is certain.